The London conference on Afghanistan wanted to turn a new page but instead keeps reading the same, never-ending story - By Thomas Ruttig

More troops, more aid workers and at some point, a handover of responsibility. That is how the international community wants to address the problem of Afghanistan. London was all about giving the impression that the strategy is working.

The lack of real progress at the latest international conference on Afghanistan only served to highlight the problems associated with the country in an even harsher light. That there is no sign of a change of strategy on the horizon is hardly surprising since the US, the leading power, already began implementing its own new strategy in December. America's allies can do little but go along with it.

In London, the main idea was to evoke the impression that Afghan President Hamid Karzai is now taking over the reins of power more decisively, allowing the West to start planning its eventual withdrawal. By the end of the year, Afghans are to take over responsibility for security in five provinces, including Badakhshan Province in the northeast where a German Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) is stationed.

But there is already disagreement over the pace of the handover, with Karzai maintaining that it will only be possible in two to three years. So despite all assertions to the contrary, the strategy of the international community will continue to be dictated by military concerns.

The assembled donor countries agreed on targets for significant increases in the Afghan army and police forces, as the Kabul government had proposed. But according to Karzai, Afghanistan will be able to cover the high costs for doing so only in 15 years, at the earliest.

US Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced that "very aggressive" action would be taken against the Taliban. That contradicts ISAF Commander General Stanley McChrystal's insight that he had "watched as America tried to first put out this fire with a hammer and it doesn't work." The highest priority, in his view, is to protect the civilian population in Afghanistan.

Between now and July 2011, Washington wants to "take the war to the Taliban," as US President Barack Obama put it in 2009. After that, an assessment will be made whether this strategy has worked.

In the process, civilians will inevitably be caught in the cross-fire. That in turn, will ensure the rebels more support rather than weakening them. Under the circumstances, Karzai is also unlikely to be able to lure Taliban representatives to a planned peace conference in Kabul due to be held in a few weeks and a subsequent "loya jirga," the grand council traditionally used to resolve political conflicts in Afghanistan.

With regard to civilian matters, the result of the London conference was to say in effect that things will continue on as before, only more so. That is also true for the German government, which says it will double aid funding and plans to triple the numbers of those training Afghan police.

But while it is certainly not necessary to dream up new strategies at every conference, the approaches up to now, while right in principle, do not match the realities. The current security situation simply does permit sending out police trainers and aid workers to the provincial areas where they are needed. Police unions are already protesting and the German aid organization, Welthungerhilfe, active in Afghanistan since 1980, has felt compelled to close one of its offices near Kunduz due to safety concerns.

The German government is to allocate ?50 million over five years to support Karzai's flagship program to reintegrate "moderate" Taliban. But the idea starts from a false premise. The so-called "10-dollar Taliban," who are to be persuaded to change their ways by increasing the military pressure, are a myth - at least as a mass phenomenon.

Even the local Taliban fight primarily for political reasons. They fight a corrupt government but they also fight foreign troops they have learned to hate because those foreigners have killed relatives and neighbors. One of the few positive developments coming out of the London conference is the plan to review the lists of prisoners. Overall, however, the key to resolving the problems in Afghanistan are reforming the government in Kabul, not trying to fight an insurrection using military means.

Karzai's six-point plan for improving the conduct of government also is unconvincing. Though it appears at first sight to address the critical questions, it loses itself in vagueness. It is certainly correct to make corruption the focus of his second term in office. Yet all he specifically offers is to expand the sphere of competence of an already existing administrative unit. Hints that he is ready to strengthen provincial governments and the elected Shura councils are another positive note. Nevertheless, Western governments should look more carefully than they did after earlier Afghanistan conferences, to make sure the promises are actually honored.

More worrisome are Karzai's statements about the forthcoming parliamentary elections that "lessons had been learned" as a result of the presidential vote held last August. He does not say that the massive electoral fraud severely undermined the legitimacy of his government; instead, he wants "non-partisan and constructive" support. What this actually means is that reporting on electoral fraud is regarded as interference in internal Afghan affairs. That is an affront to the international community and calls for a clear and forthright response.

This may yet become the "new chapter" spoken of by German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle (FDP). But we are still reading the same book as before, the "Never-ending History of Afghanistan" with its Gordian Knot - and no new Alexander in sight.

- Thomas Ruttig is the co-director of the Afghanistan Analysts Network, an independent think tank with offices in Kabul and Berlin.

Germany's plans for Afghanistan

Ahead of the international conference in London, German Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) outlined German's plans for Afghanistan in remarks to the Bundestag on Jan. 26.  She said Germany's objective was a "responsible handover" to Afghan security forces by 2014 - but that this date should not be considered the end of the German military mission. Merkel rejected the idea of a fixed timetable for withdrawal, calling it "counterproductive."

Germany will send 500 more soldiers, with another 350 available as a "flexible reserve force." Currently, there are about 4,300 German soldiers stationed in Afghanistan, most of them in the north. The number of German police officers is set to increase from 123 to 200. The government also wants to nearly double the funds for civilian reconstruction from ?220 million to ?430 per year.

Berlin believes its strategy is in line with its responsibility for the security of Germany. Merkel's statement represented a compromise between international calls to commit more forces and domestic political pressure to end the German military's involvement in the Afghan mission: "There is neither a comfortable nor a safe way to stabilize Afghanistan," she said.