Angela Merkel's new program: growth, education, social cohesion - By Theo Sommer
For the third time in the 60-year history of the Federal Republic, Germany will be governed by a center-right coalition. Like Konrad Adenauer in the 1950s and 1960s or Helmut Kohl in the 1980s and 1990s, Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, will govern alongside the pro-business Free Democratic Party (FDP), more commonly known in Germany as the 'Liberal Party.' FDP leader Guido Westerwelle, the real winner of the Sep. 27 elections, will be Merkel's new coalition partner.
Changing partners, however, does not signify a fundamental change of policies. In the three weeks it took to hammer out the roadmap for the new coalition, Westerwelle had to choke back many of his favorite ideas.
Abolition of the Federal Labor Office and relaxation of the labor laws? No way. Dispensing with the Development Ministry? No chance. (Ironically, an FDP man will now take over the portfolio the party wanted to get rid of). Radical tax cuts? Not in a period of dramatically rising state debt and a yawning 7 percent budget deficit in fiscal 2010. Around ?24 billion in tax relief and some modest improvements for families, heirs, corporations, hotels and restaurants was the best the Liberals could squeeze out of their conservative partner. (And no one knows how even these tax breaks are going to be financed; they are a risky gamble on the future growth of an economy facing years of pain.) A reversal of the nuclear power phase-out introduced by the SPD-Green government in 2002? No, just an extension of the running time of existing plants (terms to be negotiated later with the utility companies). Ending conscription and introducing a professional army? Again, out of the question; instead the coalition partners struck a ludicrous compromise, which by reducing military service to a paltry six months, will produce conscripts no better trained than night watchmen.
The coalition accord is a monstrous document: 124 closely printed pages, 6,136 lines all told. The drafters threw in everything but the kitchen sink - from a unified telephone service number to be introduced by 2013 for all public offices (since you're asking, it's 115) to improving Germany's media presence in the world by boosting the reach of the state-run broadcaster Deutsche Welle; and from championing more efficient local government ("We want citizens to feel at home") and "cultivation of the genetically modified potato Amflora" to "We want to support the public's consciousness of architectural culture." Not to leave out noble statements such as: "We reject the introduction of 60-ton trucks"; "The passability of rivers for migrating fish must be restored"; or "Children making noise shall not be cause for litigation."
For the rest, there is a plethora of caveats and reservations. Declarations of intent abound. A slew of 80 or 90 commissions, inter-departmental committees, advisory councils and expert groups will review, assess and evaluate all kinds of matters. It is a safe bet that not much of this bureaucratic agenda will survive the hard realities of the next four years. As always, the tyranny of the immediate, the urgent and ineluctable will edge out the merely desirable.
Necessity will prevail over choice - especially the need to overcome the economic recession, to fend off the next credit crunch and the impending tsunami of rising unemployment. Other tasks loom beyond that: adjusting the social security systems to a rapidly aging society by finding a new generational balance; mitigating climate change and securing the energy needs of the country; and last but not least, accomplishing the task the Germans have been laboring at ever since the Berlin Wall came down 20 years ago - making Germany whole again after four decades of partition.
The new coalition is not a repeat performance of the Kohl years. Angela Merkel has eschewed a return to the boilerplate neo-liberalism that almost lost her the election four years ago. She said she would continue along the middle way and so she did, parrying Westerwelle's attempts to push her to the right. On election night, she pledged to be "the chancellor of all Germans." That alone prevents her from veering too far toward any extreme position. She does not belong to any "camp." Being on top is her overriding concern, not being right or left. When it comes to resolving urgent problems, she argues, the labels "conservative" and "progressive" are meaningless. She is non-ideological, non-visionary, non- dogmatic. Instead she is cautious, tentative, ever ready to learn - in one word: pragmatic. For the former physicist Merkel, governing, like a laboratory experiment, is a matter of trial and error rather than the predetermined path to a specific goal. At any rate, the coalition agreement states explicitely that all reform projects can go ahead only if the money can be found to finance them.
For Germany's friends and partners abroad, the foreign affairs passages of the coalition accord contain no surprises. Continuity is the order of the day. Transatlantic cooperation and European integration will remain the two main pillars of German foreign policy. Berlin wants to strengthen the United Nations through comprehensive reform. It still has the ambition to become a permanent member of the Security Council but eventually would like to see a common seat for the EU. In Europe, it wants to push ahead with concrete projects for joint policies with regard to bank supervision, energy, security and defense. The coalition favors a "judicious enlargement policy," professing a "special interest in deepening mutual relations with Turkey." Interestingly, the brusque "No" to Turkish accession is gone. Instead, the accord says mildly that negotiations with Ankara are an open-ended process whose outcome cannot be guaranteed. Turkey has to meet the Copenhagen criteria to become "accession-capable," while Europe has to have the required "absorption capacity." Should either of these two conditions turn out to be unattainable, Turkey should further develop its privileged partnership with the European Union in order to be tied "as closely as possible to the European structures."
In other paragraphs, the build-up of a European army is called a long-term objective. The new government believes the NATO Council should once again be the central venue of the alliance's security and defense debates. In this body, Germany claims a reliable role as "gestaltendes Mitglied" - one of the members giving shape and direction to the alliance. Berlin backs President Obama's new disarmament initiatives, including his vision of a nuclear-free world. In this context, it will ask the Americans for the withdrawal of the nuclear weapons still deployed on German soil.
With regard to Afghanistan, the document underlines Germany's enduring engagement as a "task of special national interest." Its contribution would be commensurate with the importance of this task. The aim, however, is a "responsible handover" - a gradual withdrawal as soon as the Afghans can themselves guarantee their own security. Elsewhere, the document says that when it comes to military interventions abroad, Germany will continue to be guided by its "culture of restraint." Russia - an increasingly important market for German industry - is seen as "a crucial partner in the response to regional and global challenges"; economic ties and energy partnerships with it are to be reinforced. On the Arab-Israeli conflict and Iran ("if necessary tougher joint sanctions"), the German position remains unchanged. Relations with Asia will be accorded added significance. While the whole tone of these passages is far from "nationalistic" as some foreign observers would have it, they make no bones about the government's intention to stand up for German interests.
The wordsmiths have had their day. Only time will tell what their text is worth. Perhaps the composition of the second Merkel cabinet reveals more about present-day Germany than the 124 pages of the coalition accord.
The chancellor hails from East Germany, a remarried divorcee, the daughter of a Protestant pastor, a scientist by training, living a DINK (double income, no kids) lifestyle. (She is the only East German in the new government, by the way - an astounding fact 20 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall). The vice chancellor and foreign minister is openly gay. The defense minister, scion of an old Bavarian artistocratic family married to a Prussian Bismarck, is a 37-year-old reserve sergeant of the mountain infantry. The father of the new interior minister, a descendant of French Huguenots, was a Bundeswehr chief of staff, his cousin the only freely elected prime minister of the former East Germany. The family minister, a mother of seven, has become a role model of the modern woman combining motherhood and career. The health minister, a 36-year-old Catholic from Vietnam, adopted as a baby, is a political highflier from Lower Saxony. The 67-year-old finance minister, a man of immense political experience, acumen and stamina ("The best chancellor we never had") has been confined to a wheelchair since 1990, when a crazed would-be assassin tried to shoot him.
The coalition accord punctiliously registers the German mandarins' ambitions, preferences and proclivities. The cabinet mirrors the reality of a new Germany; it is colorful, diverse, lively - a vibrant mix. It will be fascinating to watch Merkel's new team turning 124 pages of political lyrics into reality.